Fed Reserve Bank of San Francisco president John Williams gave a first rate interview to the Wall Street Journal this week that highlighted his quiet genius for the markets.
My view of it is inflation is going to be for a sustained period below target. Unemployment is going to be sustained above a reasonable estimate of the natural rate of unemployment, which is closer to 6.5% than the 8.5% that we have now. That does make an argument that we should have more stimulus. But it really depends on how much confidence you have in that forecast…. My expectation is inflation will be below that, by half a percentage point, for a sustained period. That is a strong argument for stimulating the economy.